Forecasting · · 3 min read
Building a Metaculus forecasting bot
Lessons from an LLM forecasting bot in Metaculus AI tournaments: silent research failures, extremized toss-ups, and replacing vibes-tuning with measurement.
Writing
Writing by Emmanuel Effiom Duke
Technical notes on AI forecasting, AI security, model evaluation, interpretability and AI-safety research, written from my own projects, negative results included. I'm Emmanuel Effiom Duke, founder of Dukers LTD; associated initiatives include Teger AI and Transly.
AI evaluation · · 2 min read
Ask the calendar, not the model
Measuring nine language models' real knowledge cutoffs with dated-event bisection: every model that self-reported a cutoff was wrong, some by over a year.
AI security · · 2 min read
Designing Teger AI to explain phishing
How Teger AI, an explainable social-engineering defence for Gmail and Slack, pairs deterministic signals with AI analysis and treats every message as untrusted.
AI safety · · 2 min read
Four false positives and one real signal
A weights-first audit of three model organisms for secret loyalties at the Apart Research hackathon, and the workflow that rejected four false positives.
AI safety · · 2 min read
SPD meets a real grokked transformer
Applying Stochastic Parameter Decomposition to a transformer that grokked modular addition: the ground truth was verified, but the components never specialized.
AI safety · · 2 min read
Clustering SPD components into mechanisms
A CPU pilot showing SPD subcomponents can be grouped into ground-truth mechanisms automatically, and why specialization is the real bottleneck.
AI safety · · 2 min read
Do models represent deception alike?
Do different architectures learn similar internal representations of deception cues? A toy-scale test, and why the first null was too weak to answer.
AI safety · · 2 min read
The reward spread; the warning didn't
Reproducing unintended reward generalization in an inspectable toy model, and a negative result: internal signals gave no early warning.
Earlier writing, published elsewhere
Essay · · Scribd
2021 NHEF Essay Competition entry
My essay for the 2021 essay competition of the Nigeria Higher Education Foundation (NHEF), published on Scribd.